Areas such as North Wales have no more to fear from the careful lifting of lockdown measures than any other region, the UK Government’s Chief Scientific Adviser implied to Vale of Clwyd MP Dr James Davies last week.
Appearing in front of the Health and Social Care Committee last Tuesday, Sir Patrick Vallance was questioned by James about the regional variation of Covid-19 infection levels and immunity.
Speaking on the Zoom meeting chaired by Jeremy Hunt, James asked:
“Firstly, do we need to see the ‘R’ value and the incidence of Covid decreasing in all parts of the UK in order to lift the public health measures? Secondly, for regions where there has been a low level of infection or we have been behind the curve, do people have anything to fear from the lifting of measures in terms of lower levels of immunity or any other factors? Finally, is there a role for a different release of health measures in different parts of the UK?”
Sir Patrick Vallance said the 'R' rate of transmission is 'potentially a bit variable across the country' but not hugely different. He also said that recent tests had shown antibody positivity to be just 10-15% in London and as low as 3-4% in other places. It is unclear what degree of immunity, if any, that Covid antibodies bring, but it has been suggested that antibodies would be required within at least 60% of the population for this to confer protection to the remainder without.
He said: “In terms of vulnerability of the population there is nothing to suggest that you should treat different regions differently. There may be other reasons, such as local prevalence, but, that comes with complexities.”
Incidence and prevalence of Covid-19 infection in North Wales is lower than in some other areas and is thought to be on a slow downward trajectory, implying an ‘R’ value of under 1.
Following the meeting, James commented: “It is important for very many reasons that we look towards the lifting of lockdown measures but this process must be carried out carefully and slowly to ensure that transmission levels here and across the country are kept under strict control.”
The Chief Scientific Adviser also responded to James with regard to the development of accurate antibody testing, which as yet is till not available en masse.
